Miami Heat Confidence Meter:  8.9 (Jordan Fist Pump)

•  The Heat grinded out some wins this week versus the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons on a back to back, in less than spectacular fashion, but more than made up for it in a showcase game on Friday Night versus the New York Knicks.  I picked the right game to chart in the Cavs/ Heat game, where The Heat had horrific performances from many and above average performances from few.  Chris Bosh after what was a sub par 1st quarter, ended up with a total game score of 4.66, which is above all-star level.  As for my chart system, I based it on a scoring system the Heat used to employ, and most likely still do.  My model, is not as intricate, but it is intricate enough for the purpose I use it for.  To give a general idea, I assign points for every single aspect of a NBA game, for every single player in a game, and for every single “play” a player makes that either facilitates scoring, or creates turnovers / stops on the defensive end.  I then use the positive plays and negative plays to formulate a ratio to arrive at a positive or negative number.  The higher the better, the lower, (including, negative numbers) the worse.

Using this system, I have found some trends, on some lineups that needed correcting.  The one in particular that Coach Erik Spoelstra has adjusted too, is the idea of playing Udonis Haslem and Shane Battier together without Chris Bosh on the court.  I don’t believe in +/- numbers as any indicator, but that lineup is a tempo/offense killer as each player needs a perfect setup to score.  Some teams, especially Boston and Atlanta used a zone defense to stifle that lineup in 2 games.  Coach Spo has canned that lineup, judging by his rotations these last two weeks.  He has seemingly made a concerted effort to insert those two with Chris Bosh on the floor and then run elbow offense for Bosh, almost exclusively, instead of the usual ISO offense with Lebron James, with those two limited scorers.

Friday’s game saw the return of Dwyane Wade to the lineup, and what a return it was.  Coach Spo said that there was a “franchise decision” made to hold out Wade and that he could have been fine to play in the Lakers game.  That was predictable, by anybody that saw those workouts prior to the many games since then, that saw Dwyane Wade moving freely and without any pain.  The Heat weathered a barrage from three point land, that saw the New York Knicks score a opponent record 18 three’s on 43 attempts for a very good 41.2%.  It is encouraging that this Heat team can absorb that type of game from an opponent and still win a relatively comfortable fashion.

•  The Popular pick out west are the Oklahoma City Thunder, and many are considering them a lock for a NBA Finals berth.  It has been a strange season for observers of efficiency ratings, and the Thunder are a prime example.  The only thing they do particularly well is score, and they are not in the top 3 in that category.  They do not rebound well, they do not defend well, and they turn the ball over too much.  Yet , there they are with the leagues best record.  Watching their games, you come to appreciate the change in tempo that they use as a way to create scoring spurts that help them put away games.  They are winning games, almost exclusively on the offensive end.  Is it a formula that is sustainable throughout an NBA season?  In my opinion, yes, with this truncated schedule, especially.  I don’t believe that there will be much change the rest of the way atop of the Western Conference standings.  You can pencil in OKC for the #1 seed.

•  This might have been the worst week in Orlando Magic franchise history.  Not only did they score 56 points on a Monday in a loss to the Boston Celtics, they then followed it with an impressive win at Indiana, only to then have a soul crushing collapse at home versus the same Boston Celtics.  The Magic managed to blow a 27 point lead to a Celtics team missing two of their best three players in Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo.  If that was not enough, they punctuated the week by getting beat down by what might be the worst team in the western conference, the New Orleans Hornets.  I remarked earlier this week on Twitter, that Dwight Howard might clearly be the most overrated player in the league.  He is.  Howard owns the paint, is a great rebounder and rim deterrent, but he could not be more worthless in close games, down the stretch.  He simply does not effect the game enough to be considered the first cog of a championship wheel.  He is a spectacular 3rd option as a support player, as he does not seem to have any chance of further developing his offensive game.  His free throw shooting is the one card that every opponent has in their back pocket to force the Magic into trading free throw trips to the line with a sub par free throw shooter instead of running offense.  He simply cannot be fed the ball on the block behind two possessions late in games.  He becomes a satellite player, and that is not the recipe for a championship.

•  Is Shaquille O’neal serious with his axe grinding on the “Superman” nickname on the TNT pregame/postgame show?  It seems so.  So far this season, you gotta say that his analysis has been lacking but the entertainment value has been high.  His Al Bundy impersonation lately, has taken a “sad” tone.  I always felt that there was a insecure streak to SHAQ, and now it is on full display on that TNT show.  Let’s hope for our sake (the viewers) that it ceases to exist.

Heatfreak.com Power Rankings

(These power rankings are devised from a formula taking into account: Win%, Off. And Def. Eff., Reb. Rate, TO’s, SOS and PACE.)

Team                            Team Score
1.  Chicago Bulls                 106.2
2.  Denver Nuggets            101.0
3.  OKC Thunder               100.0
4.  Miami Heat                     99.8
5.  Philadelphia 76ers         98.4
6.  Portland Trailblazers    97.6
7.  Atlanta Hawks                97.0
8.  Houston Rockets           93.6
9.  Indiana Pacers               92.4
10.  Dallas Mavericks         91.2
11.  Orlando Magic             89.8
12.  San Antonio Spurs      89.8
13.  Los Angeles Lakers     89.8
14.  Utah Jazz                       91.2
15.  Memphis Grizzlies       89.2
16.  Los Angeles Clippers   88.6

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