Miami Heat Confidence Meter:  7.1 (Guarded)

•  The Miami Heat had a rough week out west, that started with a 4th quarter collapse in Golden State versus the Warriors, that saw Lebron James not shoot for the entire 4th quarter.  They followed that up with a back to back meeting in Los Angeles with the Clippers.  In that game, the Heat carried over their free throw shooting problems and in this case, it directly cost them a game.  What you can take from those two games, was the beginning of a pattern of sloppy execution of their UCLA principles, which this year, seem to be the dominant direction of their offense.  When screens are not crisp, and cutters move too early, you end up catching the ball on your cuts with a defender in your hip pocket.  Terrible screening, can ruin the timing of the entire offense and lead to lulls in scoring such as we saw in both games.  The culprit for this seems to be everybody not named Joel Anthony.  In the Clippers game especially, Shane Battier was guilty of setting two sloppy screens that led directly to broken plays, in which oddly enough Lebron James managed to score on.  In another instance, it could lead to turnovers and dunks on the other end.  When the Heat showed up in Denver, they seemed to leave their defense behind, because that was not Heat Basketball.  Denver has been a snake pit for this franchise going back a decade now.  The annual “circus” road trip for the Heat has historically been a thorn in their side as well.  Just last year, the Heat went 2-3 on this same trip, losing 3 in a row with a annihilation at the hands of the Denver Nuggets.  Sound familiar?  Well, they finished this one off 2-3 as well, with another loss in Denver and another 3 game losing streak.  Weird when that happens.

A pattern that has run it’s course, and in my opinion, must end, is Coach Erik Spoelstra’s insistence on playing Shane Battier with Udonis Haslem as the first two Subs off the bench, and in the process taking out Chris Bosh.  The sample size is small, but the evidence is becoming clearer, that Battier and Haslem are a bad fit together.  The problem with the two is that they tend to occupy the same areas on either of the court as called on screeners, and teams are sagging and clogging the lane.  If you notice, the Heat manages to gain a lot of open three point looks with those two on the court, and when Mario Chalmers hits a few, it covers up the deficiencies of that group.  Battier is best as a add on to the starting lineup, for a short stint in the first half to gain some rest for Lebron James, but must be played with Chris Bosh, since they both compliment each other well in the Heat’s corner principles and Battier is a good passer into the post.  On the bright side to all this, is that Mike Miller will return soon, and force Coach Spo’s hand in this regard, and the Heat will gain some badly needed scoring with the second unit.  The Heat will return with rest to defend home court versus some tough and interesting opponents, and this could be as interesting a week as you can have, early in a NBA season.

•  Interesting game on Thursday night between the Golden State Warriors and the Orlando Magic.  Mark Jackson has done a decent job so far, and his coaching style has made his team interesting to watch.  To say that Mark Jackson is detail oriented, is an understatement.  In that game, after a Klay Thompson three point shot with 11.1 seconds left in the first quarter, the Warriors then sought to foul Dwight Howard, to gain another possession before the end of the period.  Howard made 1 of 2 and Golden State then turned it over in the last possession.  It is that type of attention to detail, and attitude that can keep a young team interested during the season.  So far, so good for Mark Jackson, but it has only been 10 games for the Warriors, so let’s see how it’s working down the road.  In my opinion, Mark Jackson is “over-coaching”, which takes us to the most interesting aspect of this game in which Orlando won 117-109.  That would be the Hack-A-Howard defense that ended with Dwight Howard taking 39 Free Throws and making 21 of them.  Is it a good strategy when you are handing an opponent 21 made Free Throws?  No.  It is a dumb one.  His reasoning for it was that it would “mess with their rhythm” offensively and that it was better to put a bad free throw shooter on the line instead of allowing him touches and attempts in the post.  Seeing as the Magic scored 37 points in the 4th quarter, when the strategy was completely implemented, it is fair to suggest that Mark Jackson flat out blew a game for his team.
• The Oklahoma City Thunder and the L.A. Lakers were tops in the Western Conference this past week.  Behind some vintage Kobe Bryant performances, and some stifling defense, the Lakers showed that they are not ready to just hand over the western conference mantle to their competitors.  I however would caution Lakers fans to temper their enthusiasm.  The Lakers play best when they play inside out, and run their offense through their pair of seven footers.  The way Andrew Bynum is playing this year, there is just no way to justify Kobe Bryant being a volume shooter.  In the end, Kobe Bryant’s ego will defeat the Los Angeles Lakers.  On the flip side, you have the Oklahoma City Thunder who have found their identity and are very comfortable with it.  The Thunder are being efficient on offense, and are making the plays necessary down the stretch in games in order to win.  However, in the macro sense, OKC has some indicators pointing downward.  Their Defensive Efficiency is tumbling, and their Rebound Rate is holding steady, but the main indicator that must be corrected is their lack of assists, (rank 20th at 13.8 per game).  The Thunder become very predictable, when they offer no movement and seek to clear out for Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant.  Ultimately, their lack of a two man game could hurt them versus a team that executes down the stretch with their base offense, such as San Antonio and Portland.
• The Chicago Bulls had a setback this week, having their superstar Derrick Rose succumb to Turf Toe, that had him miss a meeting with the Washington Wizards.  Turf Toe is one of those injuries that can linger and in the end, damage a career.  As with all things, it is a matter of degree.  What is not a matter of degree, is the Bulls defense, which has been stellar.  The Bulls are improved across the board, except that Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer are contributing uneven performances on an almost nightly basis.  As the team keeps rolling, two major pieces of that team are trending downward, and it could spell for some rocky times ahead.  However, it is my opinion, that as a whole, there is not a more consistent Team in the NBA than the Chicago Bulls.  Their commitment to their “game” is reminiscent of the 1990′s Heat teams under Pat Riley.  With the dedication the Bulls display on a nightly basis to defend and keep to their rebounding principles, it is a shame for Bulls fans that they did not address their scoring woes, to put a proper scare into the defending Eastern Conference Champs, the Miami Heat.

• In the Philadelphia 76ers, we have a team, that before they laid an egg in New York versus the New York Knicks, were putting up a rather impressive start to the season, in almost every single team category except Rebounding.  What was impressive about their start was how well the Sixers were executing in the half court, and how well they were defending the passing lanes.  A very interesting characteristic of this Sixers team is how they make opponents go deep into the shot clock for a shot and how well, they force teams into rudimentary offense.  Their Achilles heal however will continue to be, where they go for offense down the stretch in close games.  The have a collection of “setup” players and don’t have any one great or even “good” one on one player.

•  The Portland Trailblazers are finding that they are a much better team, when they reign in Jamal Crawford’s erratic shooting.  Jamal Crawford is averaging 15.6 shot attempts in the Blazers three losses, while averaging 9.2 shots per game in the eight wins.  It is not statistical noise though.  The Trailblazers are best when the Pick & Roll game is working with Ray Felton and Lamarcus Aldridge.  The Trailblazers boast the best turnover differential in the game at -3.3 and they continue to have the look of a contender instead of what they have been in years past, a pretender.

•  The New York Knicks took a 4 game win streak into Memphis on Thursday night, where they were demolished 94-83, and it really wasn’t that close.  Hear any Knick fan tell it, and you would think that Iman Shumpert is a shoe-in rookie of the year candidate.  What Shumpert brings in athleticsm, he lacks in basketball IQ.  Shumpert regularly makes bad decisions within the offense, and takes some shots, that are ill-advised to say the least.  As for their offense, The Knicks come to a screeching halt with Carmelo Anthony on the floor.  If he catches it on the wing in the half court, count to 6 and a shot is going up.  To say that the ball sticks with Melo on the floor, is an understatement.  It is a fact that Amare Stoudemire’s game is suffering with Tyson Chandler as his front court mate.  Whenever he moves toward the rim, he is drawing Chandler’s man as well, and is having to try to finish against not one, but two bigs usually.  A severe failure in roster construction.

•  In Media this week, Shaquille Oneal dropped a S-bomb on TNT on Thursday, but that was the least of the hilarity.  This week seemed to be the week for outlandish statements.  Chris Webber mused that Andrew Bynum was the best big man in the NBA on NBA TV, then Shaquille Oneal agreed.  Later that night of course, Dwight Howard had a 45 and 23 game.  On ESPN, we were made aware of Ric Bucher’s uncanny ability to read body language as he observed that Lebron James’ body language “did not match his facial expressions” in the Clippers/Heat Tilt on Wednesday night.  Of course, whenever the Miami Heat lose a game, the media use it as an excuse to do a introspective on everything from Lebron James free throw shooting, to quotes from Chris Bosh in a GQ article.  Predictable, and boring at this point.  What wasn’t predictable or boring was a feature Kenny Smith did on Inside the NBA on TNT, where he broke down with film, the “clutch” moments from Lebron James and Kobe Bryant in their last games (James versus Clippers, Bryant versus Jazz).  What the film showed was roughly a similar success rate in decision making down the stretch, with a slight edge to Lebron James,  but one guy got bailed out with a win, while the other lost, yet one guy got to be “The Black Mamba”, and the other gets ridiculed.  That show is still the best studio show in basketball, for it’s entertainment value, but now they added a little substance to the mix.  Apparently, not even Shaquille Oneal can ruin that program.

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