Chicago Bulls 96 – Miami Heat 86 (OT) With CHART

Miami Heat Confidence Meter:  8.9 (Not this shit again)meter

•  Calamity.  Emasculating.  Fatal?  Not really.  This was the first game of the entire season with any type of stakes, and the Miami Heat came up short.  You can’t hide it.  You have to own it.  Consider the Heat 0-1 in meaningful games this year.  This game was going to decide the inside track to the # 1 seed in the east.  With the Chicago Bulls winning and pulling ahead by 3 games in the loss column, the race for #1 is over.  It would be a lie to say that the Heat’s win percentage doesn’t matter.  Great pains were taken to calculate a 64 win season last year, and a 50-16 finish this year.  You can excuse falling short by 6 games last season, due to all of the variables at play, but this season, they absolutely fell short.  In my calculations for top 5 finishes in Offensive, Defensive efficiency and Rebound rate, my figures projected a finish in the 62 to 66 win season for a 82 game schedule.  I used crude methods to try to come up with a projection for the season, and came up with 50-16.  I stand by that projection.  The Miami Heat underachieved in the regular season.

•  Coach Erik Spoelstra unveiled a new starting lineup, inserting Udonis Haslem as a starter for the second time this season.  A bout with the stomach flu cost him further minutes than his very effective 11 minutes on this night.  Ronny Turiaf was effective as a reserve, tallying 4 personal fouls, all of which were good ones.  His 5 offensive rebounds made his boxscore line and justified his minutes. Turiaf has been a very good pickup as a free agent.  Joel Anthony as a specialist is something I have to get used to.  Coach  Spo did not deem Carlos Boozer a player worthy of paying the ultimate respect by using The Warden to stop him.  In my opinion, a re-calculation on that strategy is worthy.  Boozer’s play early kept the Bulls from getting buried under a much larger deficit by a sharp Heat squad early.

•  When it rains it pours?  A game in which, otherwise had perfect execution, The Heat blow a slight coverage that leads to a difficult shot that goes in by CJ Watson, that forces overtime.  There are many interpretations to what happened on the play, and the best explanation I can come up with (My opinion) is that Bosh was faced with a decision to step up on Luol Deng or run out on CJ Watson.  He chose to step up on the nearest guy and force the extra pass.  In my opinion, it was the smartest basketball decision.  Sometimes, shots go in.  Sometimes a shot such as that, zaps your energy and costs you the overtime.  Just as this one did.

•  Mike Miller saw alot of faith from the coaching staff in getting a prominent role off the bench.  His 1-9 shooting was an albatross, but the “idea” is a good one.  Coach Spoelstra wanted to re-create Lebron James‘ production in the aggregate by using two players in Mike Miller and Shane Battier to keep the level at play at the swing position as consistent as possible.  All was well with the strategy, except for Miller’s poor shooting.  Mike Miller is also having serious issues in creating separation in any of the Heat’s corner sets, which is something Coach Spo tried to use to buy rest for Dwyane Wade and Lebron James.  It backfired badly.  Coach Spo tried to buy time by running “corner” (a set designed to get Bosh the ball in the high post, with several pass options coupled with a collecti0n of spot up shooters in Mari0 Chalmers, Shane Battier and  Mike Miller.  That lineup experiment cost the Heat the early advantage and changed the complexion of the game.  This one is the first  one that actually stings.

The Heat comes home to face the Bobcats on a second of a back to back.  Tipoff is at 7:30 pm.

GAME CHART

These numbers represent a scoring system devised by the Heat, which takes into account every instance of a game, and the flow of scoring on both ends.  The boxscore accounts for approximately 40% of the scoring, while a scoring system that takes into account rotations, defensive assignments, and effort fills in the rest.  Basketball IQ is measured by these scores, and every NBA team has a similar scoring system for games.  As a comparison, Dwight Howard is the one player that consistently scores the highest on team charts across the league.  A score of +8.0 or more is consistent with a performance in the top 5% of performances in a given season.  A score of +4.6 and above is consistent with All-star level play.  A score of +2.8 or more is consistent with a very good starting contributor.  A score of +1.7 or more is a contributing reserve.  Anything less than +1.7 to 0.0 is a negligible contribution.  Negative scores represent detrimental play.

The arrows represent the flow of scoring in the chart for each player.  A double arrow represents an even flow.  One way arrows mean steady play.

Game Score:

Miami Heat

Mario Chalmers  -0.68  ↓

Dwyane Wade  +3.66  ↑

LeBron James  +5.20  ↑

Chris Bosh  +4.88  ↔

Udonis Haslem  +3.05  ↑

__________

Shane Battier  +1.45  ↑

Ronny Turiaf  +1.28  ↔

Joel Anthony  +1.0  ↑

Mike Miller  -1.86  ↓

 

Chicago Bulls

Derrick Rose -2.63 ↔

Richard Hamilton -0.33↔

Luol Deng +4.35↑

Carlos Boozer +3.16↓

Joakim Noah -1.115↓

__________

CJ Watson +4.65↑

Kyle Korver +3.75↑

Taj Gibson +1.55↔

Omer Asik +2.25↑

Ronnie Brewer +1.33↔

Jimmy Butler -0.05↓

 

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